Will small population sizes warn us of impending extinctions?

The American Naturalist
Peter A Abrams

Abstract

Several models are used to show that population sizes are often relatively insensitive to deteriorating environmental conditions over most of the range of environments that allow population persistence. As conditions continue to worsen in these cases, equilibrium population sizes ultimately decline rapidly toward extinction from sizes similar to or larger than those before environmental decline began. Consumer-resource models predict that equilibrium or average population size can increase with deteriorating environmental conditions over a large part of the range of the environmental parameter that allows persistence. The initial insensitivity or increase in the population of the focal species occurs because changes in the populations of other components of the food web compensate for the decline in one or more fitness components of the focal population. However, the compensatory processes are generally nonlinear and often approach their limits abruptly rather than gradually. When there is steady directional change in the environment, populations lag behind the equilibrium population size specified by current environmental conditions. The environmental variable can then decline below the level required for population persistenc...Continue Reading

References

Oct 1, 1977·Theoretical Population Biology·R D Holt
Dec 1, 1973·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·M E Gilpin, F J Ayala
Jun 17, 1998·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·J L Ruesink
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Sep 8, 1972·Science·R M May

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Citations

Apr 17, 2007·Journal of Biosciences·Shovonlal Roy, J Chattopadhyay
Sep 17, 2013·Journal of Theoretical Biology·William T Gibson, William G Wilson
Sep 2, 2003·Theoretical Population Biology·Peter A AbramsRobert D Holt
Mar 28, 2009·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Robert D Holt, Michael Barfield
Jul 11, 2013·PloS One·Elodie A CourtoisJérôme Chave
Sep 23, 2009·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Elise F ZipkinPatrick J Sullivan
Nov 12, 2013·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Peter A Abrams
Sep 24, 2008·The American Naturalist·Jeremy W Fox, David A Vasseur
Feb 25, 2005·The American Naturalist·Erik G Noonburg, Peter A Abrams
Feb 29, 2008·Theoretical Population Biology·Manojit Roy, Robert D Holt
Jun 9, 2009·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Christopher P Grouios, Lisa L Manne
Dec 22, 2006·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Liana N JosephHugh P Possingham
Aug 8, 2014·Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society·Peter A Abrams
Apr 23, 2015·Nature Communications·Emanuel A Fronhofer, Florian Altermatt
Sep 30, 2016·Ecology Letters·Trevor J HefleyDaniel P Walsh
Jul 26, 2005·Theoretical Population Biology·Peter A Abrams, Christopher Quince
Aug 26, 2010·Ecology Letters·Helen T MurphyJon Lovett-Doust
Jan 1, 2014·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Benjamin MartinVolker Grimm
Jun 29, 2016·Ecology·Michael H Cortez, Peter A Abrams
Sep 29, 2011·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Lasse RuokolainenBrian J Shuter

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