Wolf in sheep's clothing: Model misspecification undermines tests of the neutral theory for life histories

Ecology and Evolution
Matthieu AuthierEmmanuelle Cam

Abstract

Understanding the processes behind change in reproductive state along life-history trajectories is a salient research program in evolutionary ecology. Two processes, state dependence and heterogeneity, can drive the dynamics of change among states. Both processes can operate simultaneously, begging the difficult question of how to tease them apart in practice. The Neutral Theory for Life Histories (NTLH) holds that the bulk of variations in life-history trajectories is due to state dependence and is hence neutral: Once previous (breeding) state is taken into account, variations are mostly random. Lifetime reproductive success (LRS), the number of descendants produced over an individual's reproductive life span, has been used to infer support for NTLH in natura. Support stemmed from accurate prediction of the population-level distribution of LRS with parameters estimated from a state dependence model. We show with Monte Carlo simulations that the current reliance of NTLH on LRS prediction in a null hypothesis framework easily leads to selecting a misspecified model, biased estimates and flawed inferences. Support for the NTLH can be spurious because of a systematic positive bias in estimated state dependence when heterogeneity i...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 26, 2017·Scientific Reports·Anni HämäläinenStan Boutin
Aug 21, 2018·Ecological Monographs·Rémi FayHenri Weimerskirch
Jul 22, 2021·Ecology Letters·Amy B ForsytheWilliam A Nelson

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