Zika-Associated Microcephaly Epidemic and Birth Rate Reduction in Brazilian Cities

American Journal of Public Health
Fredi Alexander Diaz-QuijanoAlexandre Dias Porto Chiavegatto Filho

Abstract

To estimate birth reduction potentially in response to Zika virus-associated microcephaly among the 36 largest Brazilian cities. We analyzed the number of live births per month on the basis of information on approximately 8.2 million births from all of Brazil's state capitals and cities that had more than 10 000 annual births. In the second half of 2016, the live birth rate was reduced by 7.78% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.64%, 8.89%; P < .001). This reduction was correlated with the Zika virus-associated microcephaly rate. In the cities with the highest microcephaly rate in 2015 (> 1 case per 1000 live births), the reduction in the live birth rate was 10.84% (95% CI = 8.58%, 13.04%). The birth rate in the largest Brazilian cities during the second half of 2016 was significantly reduced, which is potentially the effect of a birth control recommendation prompted by an epidemiological alert. Public Health Implications. The effects of population-based interventions should be weighed by considering the actual risk of disease and the sociodemographic impact of strategies such as birth control.

References

Feb 11, 2016·The New England Journal of Medicine·Jernej MlakarTatjana Avšič Županc
May 26, 2016·Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease·Alfonso J Rodriguez-MoralesCarlos Franco-Paredes
Jun 26, 2017·Lancet·David BaudDidier Musso
Jul 9, 2017·Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics·Jamie P DubautAlexander M Quaas
Sep 5, 2017·Annals of Epidemiology·Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano, Alexandre Dias Porto Chiavegatto Filho

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Citations

Dec 12, 2018·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·James A HaySteven Riley
May 23, 2020·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell
Feb 6, 2020·Scientific Reports·Marilia Sá CarvalhoLeonardo Soares Bastos
Jan 2, 2021·Frontiers in Pediatrics·Tulika SinghSallie R Permar

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